New Pakistan Army will have to prioratise internal turmoil than threats at borders

The Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (JCSC) Chairman General Shamshad Mirza and Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir have taken over, and the Indian national security planners have decided not to pre-judge them based on their past behaviour, but rather on their future behaviour with regard to terrorist organisations that target India.

General Munir, who was the DG (ISI) at the time of the February 14, 2019, attack in Pulwama, is aware of the strength and capability of the Indian military because it was him who delivered Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s direct warning to then-Prime Minister Imran Khan about the military fallout if IAF fighter pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan was injured while being held in Rawalpindi following the February 26, 2019, Balakot strike.

Then-RA&W Chief Anil Dhasmana instructed General Munir to deliver PM Modi’s message even as India prepared Prithvi ballistic missiles the in Rajasthan sector to demonstrate the seriousness of PM Modi’s threat. Such was the threat that Khan announced Abhinandan’s release the following evening in the Pakistan National Assembly. General Munir is somewhat knowledgeable about both India’s overt and covert capabilities.

General Shamshad Mirza is also aware of the Indian military’s capabilities because he oversaw the X Corps, which is responsible for overseeing the entire Line of Control, and because he has spoken with General Anil Chauhan, the Indian Chief of Defence Staff, while they were both the director general of their respective countries’ military operations. On the orders of the departing Pakistani Army Chief General Qamar Jawed Bajwa, General Mirza played a crucial role in securing a truce along the Line of Control with India.

General Munir’s attention will be on with dealing internal issues in Pakistan, where ousted PM Imran Khan is desperately trying to push an early election. India is well capable of handling any Pakistan Army action on the LoC or western frontiers.

Because of his prior behaviour, Khan has proven to be a highly dishonest politician who is capable of inventing a diplomatic ruse to justify the US working closely with the Pakistani Army to remove him from office. Khan is confident he would win the election by cursing the Sharif-Zardari families as well as the Pakistan Army, thus the political unrest in Pakistan will continue until the polls are held.

Border conflicts with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, which reject the Durand Line that the cunning British used to divide the Pashtun community, present General Munir with his second challenge. Cross-border shootings have become the norm as a result of the Taliban regime’s lack of interest in heeding Rawalpindi’s recommendations on issues of national importance.

General Munir’s final difficulty will be to maintain control over the 40 or so terrorist organisations operating in Pakistan, especially as the TTP, the Baloch Liberation Army, and the Sindh groups become more capable of challenging Islamabad.

The Baloch and Sindh factions will function as key spoilers since they have started attacking Chinese nationals who are out to exploit their region’s natural resources, despite the fact that Pakistan is being pushed by China to further extend the Belt Road Initiative.

Given that Imran Khan was the one who ousted Gen Munir from the ISI headquarters after a brief term and then recruited Gen Faiz Hameed as his supplicant, Gen Munir would be well-versed in Imran Khan’s schemes.

Last but not least, General Munir is also faced with the difficult task of rebuilding the relationships between the Pentagon and the Biden Administration that Imran Khan’s cypher escapade shattered. Despite the hasty withdrawal of US forces from Kabul on August 15, 2001, the Pentagon continues to maintain and practise its beyond-the-horizon assault capabilities both inside and outside Pakistan.