New Vehicle Sales Expected to Stay Healthy in Q3 Ahead of UAW Strike Impact, According to Edmunds


Though the sales rate continues to climb year over year even with broader economic headwinds, analysts note the strike could signal new inventory challenges ahead for the Detroit Three

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 27, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The car shopping experts from Edmunds forecast that 3,942,617 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the third quarter of 2023, which will be a 16.0% increase from the third quarter of 2022 but a 4.1% decrease compared to the second quarter of 2023.

“Given high interest rates, conservative inventory and modest incentives, consumers weren’t exactly hit with compelling buy messages throughout the third quarter compared to the traditional summer sales deals and model-year sell-down advertising messages of the past,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights. “Still, new-vehicle sales have remained somewhat consistent as pent-up demand keeps sales afloat despite economic challenges. That said, the UAW strike could soon begin to throw a monkey wrench into 2023 sales — creating much inventory uncertainty among the Detroit Three moving forward. Right now, the effects are limited, and third-quarter sales were left unscathed. However, the landscape can change dramatically, and quickly, if the strike continues.”


Heading into the strike, recent days-to-turn data from Edmunds reveals that vehicles from the Detroit automakers sat on dealer lots longer than the industry average. In the first half of September, while industry-wide days to turn was at 37 days, Stellantis was at 72 days, Ford at 48 days and General Motors at 40 days.

“Availability is currently strong for American-branded trucks and SUVs, but shoppers contemplating a new-vehicle purchase from any of the Detroit brands may consider expediting their search process given the strike’s unpredictable impact on supply,” said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights. “Though initial phases of the strike have focused on midsize trucks and parts distribution centers, there’s no telling what direction the picket lines may swing next, and thus shoppers might want to consider acting swiftly to avoid potential shortages of the models they are eyeing.”

If the strike lingers, Edmunds analysts advise consumers to keep an open mind on make and model.

“Similar to how shoppers were forced to navigate tight inventory due to chip shortages and other pandemic-related supply chain challenges the past few years, those who plan ahead and remain open to a variety of brands, colors and even vehicle types will leave with the best deals,” said Drury. “Current Detroit Three lessees with an expiration in the next few months might consider taking action more quickly, either by extending the lease or buying it out at the end of the contract. And for shoppers looking at models with very specific configurations or custom order requirements, I’d suggest locking in the order sooner rather than later.”


SALES VOLUME 2023 Q3 Forecast 2022 Q3 Sales 2023 Q2 Sales Change from 2022 Q3 Change from 2023 Q2
GM 680,009 555,774 692,176 22.4% -1.8%
Toyota 583,661 526,020 568,965 11.0% 2.6%
Ford 499,964 464,674 531,662 7.6% -6.0%
Hyundai/Kia 424,434 384,904 438,536 10.3% -3.2%
Stellantis 390,822 387,297 437,001 0.9% -10.6%
Honda 338,706 222,050 347,026 52.5% -2.4%
Nissan 221,446 154,086 244,353 43.7% -9.4%
VW/Audi 139,843 137,860 135,071 1.4% 3.5%
Industry 3,942,617 3,398,743 4,110,471 16.0% -4.1%


Market Share 2023 Q3 Forecast 2022 Q3 Sales 2023 Q2 Sales Change from 2022 Q3 Change from 2023 Q2
GM 17.2% 16.4% 16.8% 5.5% 2.4%
Toyota 14.8% 15.5% 13.8% -4.3% 7.0%
Ford 12.7% 13.7% 12.9% -7.2% -2.0%
Hyundai/Kia 10.8% 11.3% 10.7% -4.9% 0.9%
Stellantis 9.9% 11.4% 10.6% -13.0% -6.8%
Honda 8.6% 6.5% 8.4% 31.5% 1.8%
Nissan 5.6% 4.5% 5.9% 23.9% -5.5%
VW/Audi 3.5% 4.1% 3.3% -12.6% 7.9%

About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America’s best workplaces by Fortune, Great Place to Work and Built In, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California. Follow us on TikTok, Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

1 How many days a vehicle sits on a dealership lot before being sold

CONTACT: Mitch Paul Edmunds 310-491-8738 [email protected] 

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